The Bureau of Meteorology is continuing to monitor atmospheric conditions in the Pacific as it maintains an El Nino Alert. 

The latest Climate Driver Update says development of an El Nino remains likely in spring, with some of the required conditions in place. 

Sea surface temperatures are exceeding key thresholds and climate models suggest that’s likely to continue at least through to early next year. Atmospheric pressures over Australia have also increased in the past few weeks, but conditions near Tahiti are close to normal. 

“El Nino is associated with higher than average pressure over Australia and lower than average pressure over Tahiti,” the update says. “Overall, atmospheric indicators suggest the Pacific Ocean and atmosphere are not yet consistently reinforcing each other, as occurs during El Nino events.”  

Climate model forecasts also suggest a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is likely to develop during spring. A positive IOD typically decreases winter–spring rainfall for much of Australia and can increase El Nino’s drying influence. 

After three consecutive La Nina’s, the World Meteorological Organisation and US and Japanese meteorological groups have already declared El Nino is in play.